“Wildfire season” in California is no longer a matter of when—it’s a matter of how bad and where. The threat is now a constant, a year-round risk that demands a shift in mindset. This article will debunk the outdated notion of a contained fire season and provide a clear picture of the evolving, ever-present danger facing California.
My aim isn’t to offer specific advice, but rather to assemble critical information and increase awareness. The more you understand the dynamics of this escalating threat, the better positioned you are to navigate this new reality.
This new reality is for all Californians. Whether you live in the heart of a city, a sprawling suburb, or a rural community, the shadow of wildfire looms larger and longer than ever before. Preparedness is no longer a seasonal concern; it’s an ongoing necessity. Residents must take proactive steps to safeguard themselves and their properties, including exploring California wildfire insurance options that can provide crucial financial protection.
What Was Wildfire Season? A Look Back (and Why It Matters)
Historically, the concept of a “wildfire season” in California was relatively straightforward. It generally spanned from May through October, with regional variations. In Northern California, the peak typically stretched from June or July into October or even November. Southern California faced its highest risk a bit earlier, starting in May or June and usually lasting through October.
September and October were historically considered the most dangerous months. The reason? A combination of factors created a perfect storm for fire: vegetation, dried out from the long, hot summer, and strong, dry winds—the infamous Santa Anas in the south and Diablos in the north—fanning the flames. The Western Fire Chiefs Association (WFCA) provides a valuable perspective on this historical context, documenting the patterns and trends of past fire seasons.1
But those days are gone. The predictable patterns of the past have been disrupted, replaced by a more volatile and dangerous reality. Here’s what’s happening now…
Why is Wildfire Risk Now Year-Round in California?
Climate change is the primary driver behind California’s descent into a perpetual state of fire risk, creating a landscape that can only be described as a tinderbox. The situation isn’t just about rising temperatures; it’s about the increasingly erratic, violent swings in our weather patterns—a phenomenon known as hydroclimate whiplash.
Hydroclimate whiplash is, in a sense, the cruelest of ironies. Periods of intense rainfall, like the 2023-2024 wet season, trigger explosive vegetation growth. Lush hillsides seem to promise relief. But that promise is quickly broken. This abundance of new growth is then subjected to rapid, intense drying, often followed by record-breaking dry spells. For example, Los Angeles experienced a record-dry autumn in 2024, receiving a mere 0.16 inches of rain since October.2 This transforms that initial burst of life into an enormous, readily available fuel source, primed to ignite. Climate change has increased this “whiplash” volatility by a staggering 31–66% since the 1950s.3
The scientific community is racing to keep up with this accelerating threat. Next-generation forecasting models, like the Probability of Fire (PoF) model developed by ECMWF, are now essential tools. This isn’t your grandfather’s fire prediction model. The PoF model, which outperformed traditional indices in predicting recent fire behavior, incorporates an intricate web of data: fuel moisture levels calculated by the SPARKY model, human activity patterns (like road density and the ever-expanding wildland-urban interface), and even satellite data from ESA’s FLEX and BIOMASS missions.2
The 2025 fires served as a stark reminder that old rules no longer apply. Climate whiplash and sophisticated AI forecasting are rapidly becoming the defining elements of California’s fire landscape.
Drought: Fueling the Flames
Drought is inextricably linked to climate change, acting as both a consequence of the larger problem and a significant contributor to the escalating wildfire crisis. It’s a vicious cycle, each element feeding the other.
The legacy of past droughts continues to haunt California. The 2020-2021 drought, for instance, left a staggering 163 million dead trees in the Sierra Nevada mountains, a critical fuel source that remains a major concern.
The situation in 2025 provided no respite. Southern California received less than 25% of its typical rainfall in 2024, exacerbating the already parched conditions.2 A staggering 97% of California was classified as being in severe or extreme drought as of January 2025.4 These aren’t just statistics; they represent a landscape primed for ignition, where even a small spark can trigger a catastrophic event.
The Winds: Santa Anas and Diablos (More Than Just Wind)
Winds in California don’t simply spread existing wildfires; under the right conditions, they can actively create them and even generate their own localized, extreme weather patterns. They are a force multiplier, transforming a manageable situation into an uncontrollable inferno.
In Southern California, the infamous Santa Ana winds are the primary culprits. Imagine them as giant, natural hairdryers, descending from the mountains towards the coast. These winds are hot, dry, and relentless, superheating and desiccating the landscape as they pass. Their Northern California counterparts, the Diablo winds, operate on the same principle, channeling through canyons and valleys with devastating force.
The Palisades Fire of 2025, which consumed 22,660 acres, serves as a chilling example. Santa Ana winds reaching speeds of 40+ mph propelled the fire’s rapid spread. What’s even more remarkable is that ECMWF’s advanced models predicted these wind conditions a full 8 days in advance, highlighting the increasing power and importance of sophisticated forecasting.2
But the story doesn’t end there. Large, intense wildfires can generate their own weather, a phenomenon that further complicates firefighting efforts. The heat from a massive blaze, like the Eaton Fire, can create pyrocumulonimbus clouds. These towering clouds, born of fire, are capable of producing their own lightning strikes and erratic, unpredictable winds, potentially sparking new fires downwind of the main blaze.5 This creates a terrifying feedback loop, where the fire itself fuels further spread and intensification.
The Human Factor: A Preventable Threat (and an Equity Issue)
While climate change, drought, and winds create the conditions for catastrophic wildfires, the stark reality is that a significant percentage of these fires are ignited by human actions. In fact, 84% of wildfires in 2025 were human-caused.6 This represents a sobering degree of preventable destruction.
The sources of ignition are often tragically mundane: unattended campfires that escape their confines, carelessly discarded cigarettes that smolder in dry brush, sparks from vehicles or equipment operating in high-risk areas, and fallen power lines that arc and ignite surrounding vegetation. Each of these scenarios represents a moment where a different choice could have prevented disaster.
Compounding the problem is the expanding Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI). This is the zone where human development encroaches upon wildland areas, placing more homes and lives directly in the path of potential wildfires. A staggering 12.7% of Californians now reside in these high-risk WUI zones.5
But the risks are not distributed equally. A disturbing equity gap exists, with low-income and elderly residents facing disproportionate dangers. These vulnerable populations often lack access to adequate evacuation plans, and many face the devastating reality of insurance cancellations, leaving them without crucial financial protection in the event of a fire. This disparity in preparedness and resources is a critical issue that demands attention.
Policy & Technology Solutions: Fighting Fire with Innovation
California is not standing still in the face of this escalating crisis. A combination of proactive policy changes and cutting-edge technological advancements are being deployed to mitigate the risk and improve response capabilities.
One significant step is the implementation of “Zone 0” mandates. Governor Newsom’s 2025 executive order requires the creation of 5-foot ember-resistant zones around homes located in high-risk areas.4 This proactive measure aims to reduce the likelihood of embers, carried by the wind, igniting homes and structures.
Technology is playing an increasingly crucial role. The planned launch of FireSat in 2025, a Google-backed satellite constellation capable of providing 5x5m-resolution imagery, promises to revolutionize early fire detection.6 This level of detail will allow for faster, more precise identification of nascent fires, enabling quicker response and potentially preventing small blazes from escalating into catastrophic events.
On the ground, Cal Fire is utilizing FIRIS (Fire Integrated Real-Time Intelligence System), a real-time fire mapping tool that provides critical information for evacuation planning and resource allocation.4 This technology allows for a more dynamic and responsive approach to managing active wildfires.
Beyond technological advancements, there’s a growing recognition of the need to incorporate traditional ecological knowledge. Stanford researchers, and others, are advocating for the expansion of Indigenous fire practices, including cultural burning.5 These practices, suppressed for decades, offer a valuable, time-tested approach to managing fuel loads and reducing the risk of large, uncontrolled wildfires. It’s a recognition that the most effective solutions may involve a blend of modern technology and ancient wisdom.
Environmental & Economic Costs: The Staggering Price Tag
The consequences of California’s increasingly frequent and intense wildfires extend far beyond the immediate devastation of burned acres. The environmental and economic costs are staggering, representing a long-term burden on the state’s resources and its people. These costs are a direct result of the interconnected factors discussed previously: climate change, drought, wind, and human activity.
The 2025 fire season served as a brutal reminder of the financial toll. The Palisades and Eaton fires alone resulted in an estimated $150–275 billion in losses.2 Those fires destroyed 16,255 structures and tragically claimed the lives of 28 people.4 These are not abstract figures; they represent shattered lives, lost homes, and disrupted communities.
The impact on air quality is another critical concern. CAMS (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) reported record-breaking PM2.5 emissions in January 2025.2 PM2.5, or particulate matter 2.5, refers to tiny particles in the air that are 2.5 micrometers or less in diameter. These particles are small enough to be inhaled deep into the lungs, posing significant health risks. The smoke plumes from wildfires carry these particles, along with other harmful pollutants, across vast distances, impacting air quality far beyond the immediate fire zone.
California’s Hotspots: Where is the Risk Greatest?
While no part of California is entirely immune to the threat of wildfire, the areas of greatest risk have demonstrably expanded in recent years. It’s no longer sufficient to focus solely on traditionally fire-prone regions; the danger is spreading, driven by the interconnected forces of climate change, drought, and human activity.
Northern California
Northern California has long been associated with lightning-caused fires, particularly in remote, forested areas. While lightning remains a significant ignition source, human-caused fires are also a growing concern, blurring the lines between natural and preventable blazes. A UC Irvine study identified specific high-risk areas, including the Nevada-Yuba-Placer Unit and the Tuolumne-Calaveras Unit. Adding to the concern are the so-called “asbestos forests”—areas once considered relatively fire-resistant due to their moisture content—that have become increasingly dry and vulnerable due to the impacts of climate change.
Southern California
Southern California faces a year-round threat, with a particularly alarming increase in coastal fire risk. This isn’t just a problem for inland communities; the danger is now pressing closer to the Pacific. High-risk areas, as identified in the UC Irvine study, include Los Angeles County, Ventura County, and parts of Riverside, San Diego, and San Bernardino Counties. The San Benito-Monterey Unit and San Luis Obispo Unit also face substantial danger. While coastal fires are often driven by the hot, dry desert winds, they are not always a requirement, and fires have become able to spread on their own.
The Sierra Nevada
The Sierra Nevada mountains present a unique and deeply concerning challenge. The region is grappling with what can only be described as an “epidemic” of dead trees, with nearly 163 million trees succumbing to the combined effects of prolonged drought, insect infestations, and disease.7 Ken Pimlott, former director of Cal Fire, has stated that in many communities within the Sierra Nevada, a staggering 80% of the trees are dead. This vast accumulation of dry fuel creates the potential for truly catastrophic wildfires, capable of spreading with unprecedented speed and intensity.
Recent Fires: A Wake-Up Call
The recent past offers a sobering glimpse into California’s wildfire future. It’s not just about statistics; it’s about the real, human impact on communities across the state. Imagine the terror of a sudden evacuation order, the frantic scramble to gather loved ones and essential belongings, the agonizing uncertainty of not knowing whether your home will still be standing when—and if—you’re allowed to return. This was the reality for countless Californians during the Dixie Fire, and many other large fires that have ravaged the state. These events are no longer anomalies; they are becoming the norm.
Beyond that single, deeply personal narrative, a broader look at recent fires reveals the alarming trend. Here’s a condensed list:
- Colorado Fire: Date: 1/21/2022, County: Monterey, Acres burned: 687, 100% contained.
- Emerald Fire: Date: 2/10/2022, County: Orange, Acres burned: 154, 100% contained.
- Palisades and Eaton Fires: Mid-January 2025, Los Angeles County, more than 12,000 structures destroyed, 28 people killed.
These are just a few examples, and they highlight the geographic diversity of the threat. The fires aren’t confined to one region or one type of landscape.
The statistics further underscore the escalating crisis. The WFCA reports that 8 of the 10 largest fires on record, and 12 of the top 20, have occurred in just the past 5 years.1 In the single year of 2020 alone, 5 of California’s top 20 biggest wildfires occurred.1 And, perhaps most disturbingly, 13 of California’s 20 most destructive wildfires have happened in the last five years.1 The trend is undeniable: fires are becoming larger, more frequent, and more devastating.
The Cost of Constant Fire: Beyond the Acres Burned
The escalating wildfire crisis in California carries a hefty price tag, extending far beyond the immediate and obvious devastation of charred landscapes and destroyed homes. The economic, environmental, and even societal costs are substantial and far-reaching, impacting everything from government budgets to individual health.
Economic Impacts
The financial burden of constant fire is immense. Fire suppression costs routinely exceed allocated budgets, reaching nearly $1 billion in 2018 alone.7 CalFire’s budget has ballooned, growing from $800 million in 2005-06 to a staggering $3.7 billion in 2021-22.7 In 2020, the state was forced to draw $1.76 billion from emergency funds to cover wildfire-related expenses.7
The economic impact ripples outward, affecting homeowners directly. Insurance premiums are skyrocketing, and in many high-risk areas, policies are being canceled altogether, forcing residents to rely on the FAIR Plan, California’s insurer of last resort. The sheer expense of fighting these fires is also a factor, with agencies investing in costly tools like air tankers and pre-positioning firefighting teams in anticipation of potential outbreaks.
Environmental Damage
The environmental consequences are equally dire. Wildfires have a devastating impact on air quality. Smoke plumes, filled with harmful particles, gases, and even cancer-causing substances, blanket vast areas, posing serious health risks. Respiratory problems, asthma attacks, and even heart attacks can be triggered by exposure to this toxic mix, leading to school closures and widespread health advisories.
Beyond immediate health and psychological concerns, wildfires contribute significantly to climate change, creating a vicious feedback loop. They release massive amounts of greenhouse gases, undoing efforts to reduce carbon emissions.7 They also release black carbon, a potent climate-warming pollutant.7
The damage extends to watersheds and soil. The loss of vegetation due to fire leaves the land vulnerable to erosion. This leads to clogged waterways, increased risk of landslides, and the loss of vital carbon capture provided by healthy forests and vegetation.
Power Lines
The role of power lines in sparking wildfires cannot be ignored. Transmission lines crisscross the state, often traversing remote, vegetation-heavy areas. Roughly 1 in 10 wildfires are linked to energy equipment, highlighting the need for improved infrastructure and safety measures.
Frequently Asked Questions: California Wildfires
As a California insurance broker, these are the questions I get asked the most about the California fire season.
Is there really a “fire season” anymore in California?
While there are periods of higher risk, the traditional concept of a limited “fire season” is outdated. Due to climate change, drought, and other factors, wildfires are now a year-round threat in many parts of California. The old patterns no longer hold.
What part of California is most at risk for wildfires?
While risk is widespread, some areas are considered “hotspots.” In Northern California, these include the Nevada-Yuba-Placer Unit and the Tuolumne-Calaveras Unit. In Southern California, high-risk areas include Los Angeles County, Ventura County, and parts of Riverside, San Diego, and San Bernardino Counties. The Sierra Nevada mountains also face significant risk due to a large number of dead trees. However, it is important to remember that risk is increasing across the state; nowhere is truly “safe.”
What causes most wildfires in California?
A significant percentage of wildfires (up to 90%, according to some estimates) are caused by human activity. Common causes include unattended campfires, improperly discarded cigarettes, sparks from vehicles or equipment, and fallen power lines. Natural causes, like lightning, also play a role, particularly in Northern California. The key takeaway is that many fires are preventable.
How does climate change affect California wildfires?
Climate change is a major driver of the increasing wildfire risk. It leads to warmer temperatures, drier conditions, and less rainfall overall, creating a “tinderbox” effect. It also contributes to longer fire seasons and more intense fires, creating a feedback loop where each factor amplifies the others.
What are Santa Ana winds and Diablo winds?
These are strong, dry winds that significantly increase wildfire risk. Santa Ana winds occur in Southern California, blowing from the mountains towards the coast. Diablo winds are the Northern California equivalent. Both can rapidly spread existing fires and even cause new ones to ignite by carrying embers long distances.
Why are there so many dead trees in the Sierra Nevada?
A prolonged drought, combined with insect infestations and disease, has led to a massive die-off of trees in the Sierra Nevada mountains. These dead trees provide ample fuel for wildfires, increasing the risk of large, destructive blazes. It’s a critical factor driving the heightened fire danger in that region.
Are wildfires impacting air quality?
Yes, wildfires have a significant negative impact on air quality. They release smoke containing harmful particles and gases, which can cause respiratory problems, trigger asthma attacks, and even increase the risk of heart attacks. The smoke can travel for hundreds, even thousands, of miles, affecting air quality far beyond the immediate fire zone.
How do wildfires affect climate change?
It’s a vicious cycle. Wildfires release large amounts of greenhouse gases, contributing to climate change, which in turn increases the risk of future wildfires. It’s a feedback loop that is accelerating the overall problem.
Conclusion: Living with Year-Round Wildfire Risk in California
The inescapable conclusion is that the concept of a discrete “wildfire season” in California is obsolete. The threat is now constant, a year-round reality driven by the interconnected forces of climate change, persistent drought, powerful winds, and, tragically, often preventable human actions.
The danger zones are expanding. While certain areas, like the Sierra Nevada with its millions of dead trees, and specific regions in both Northern and Southern California, remain hotspots, the risk is spreading across the state. Coastal communities, once considered relatively safe, are now facing increasing threats.
California is actively working to mitigate the risks. Efforts include developing comprehensive wildfire mitigation plans, clearing hazardous brush and vegetation, and investing in advanced fire detection and suppression technologies, though the undertaking by PG&E, Southern California Edison, and San Diego Gas and Electric to upgrade their infrastructure has at times led to planned power outages, also known as de-energization events, which has caused the state, under Gov. Newsom, to consider new forest management projects. However, individual awareness and understanding of the evolving threat are paramount.
This isn’t about living in fear; it’s about living with informed vigilance. California’s future depends on recognizing the stark reality of year-round wildfire risk and adapting to this new, challenging landscape. The challenge is immense, but the collective responsibility to adapt and prepare is even greater.
References
- CalMatters. (2025). [California infernos in January? Here’s why wildfire season keeps getting longer and more devastating]. Retrieved from https://calmatters.org/explainers/california-wildfire-season-worsening-explained/
- Western Fire Chiefs Association (WFCA). California Fire Season: In-Depth Guide https://wfca.com/wildfire-articles/california-fire-season-in-depth-guide/
- ECMWF Forecast Analysis. (2025). 2025 California Wildfires: Insights from ECMWF Forecasts. Retrieved from https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2025/2025-california-wildfires-insights-ecmwf-forecasts
- UCLA Whiplash Study. (2023). BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0ewe4p9128o
- Newsweek Article on Newsom’s Website. (2025). Governor Newsom Launches New Website to Fight California Wildfire Misinformation. Retrieved from https://www.newsweek.com/gavin-newsom-launches-new-website-fight-california-wildfire-misinformation-2013608
- Penn State Expert Q&A. (2024). California’s Wildfire Crisis: Expert Insights on Causes, Spread, and Solutions. Retrieved from https://iee.psu.edu/news/blog/californias-wildfire-crisis-expert-insights-causes-spread-and-solutions
- Penn State News. (2024). Q&A: Causes, spread and solutions for California’s wildfire crisis. Retrieved from https://www.psu.edu/news/research/story/qa-causes-spread-and-solutions-californias-wildfire-crisis/
